
This is a funny coincidence (since I'm not a visionary), but it goes like this...
Last week, I was having lunch with Dottie Hall, a Sr. Marketing executive with many years on the software space. At one point she asked me which software companies would I consider to be successful. No doubt in my mind: Adobe.
Adobe has been a consistent software company, and that alone puts it ahead of the pack. Can you call Microsoft, Oracle or SAP consistent? Hardly. Software development has inconsistent cycles, inconsistent quality levels, inconsistent user experience, but not Adobe. It delivers all its line of products on a regular basis, each one building on the previous experience and extending it, at the same time maintaining a reasonable quality level.
Then, Dottie asked me what could Adobe do to jeopardize its position.
I reasoned: When software companies collapse, fail or become irrelevant is usually because of misguided directions from management. Usually big shifts in direction, either because of research risk (too complex) or execution risk (too different).
So, for me, the obvious answer to how could Adobe jeopardize their position was to become a service company, as in "software as a service" or "hosted services".
Bingo. Look at their announcement today of creating an online version of Adobe Photoshop.
Do I think they will be dead in 5 years? Not really, but they are moving into uncharted territory for them. Even if they are the smartest people on the planet the risks are tremendous, from cannibalization of their product line to bottomless bugdet pits to make the service work.
Let's talk again in 2010 to see how that went.



I'm the Co-founder & CTO of