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I’m happy to tell that I’ve joined a band of exceptional players to build what’s going to be one of the biggest bets from Seattle, creating a new way to build startups. Pioneer Square Labs (a.k.a. PSL) is a few weeks old and in a short few weeks, we closed a $12.5M round, built a tremendous team and are already executing on the vision. Continue reading…
Life is marked by big milestones. If I ask you what important thing happened on your life in 2005 you will only remember if you moved to a new house or city, if you had a baby or got married, if someone important to you died, if you switched jobs or one of the big life moments. 2015 is one of those years for me. After four and a half years founding and building my own startup, the time has come to move on.
As I reflected on my career in the last two decades, I realize this is the longest “project” I have ever worked on. Even though there isn’t a dull moment when you work at a startup, there is such thing as mastering the current. It has been tough for me over the last few months given the strategic direction the business is taking.
Over time, where I brought the most value to the company (early-stage product & business), I became less important. That’s expected. Business mature and it’s not uncommon for founders to become a misfit in their own companies. I didn’t expect it to happen to me, neither had I predicted it would happen. It just did.
You can be emotionally dishonest about what’s going on. Assume that’s just how it goes. Assume that you’ll find your place again in your own company. That’s what I did for a while until I confronted myself and realized it wouldn’t happen. This emotional dishonesty becomes apparent for everyone around you. It affects them in a negative way and I had to wake up and realize that my “personal” problems were affecting my coworkers and my family as well. Time for a reset.
I don’t know yet. I’m envisioning one of three possibilities: 1) I’ll build startups for me or for someone else; 2) I’ll help startups improve the odds they will be successful; 3) I’ll work in/with an innovative software consumer product. I have nothing lined up yet and I’m exploring.
One of the things I learned about myself over the last few years is that I’m really good at going from 0 to 1 (don’t confuse with Peter Thiel’s “0 to 1” which for me is more of a “0 to 3”). Take an idea in the back of a napkin and bring it to fruition by putting all the pieces together (UX, software, design, marketing, biz, ops, team, etc.) and many of those I can do it by myself, which makes it incredibly efficient and fast to build a software startup (MVP-ish). If I could use that superpower to create value, that would be ideal.
My passion for startups and tech innovation has not diminished despite the bruises and scars (financial and emotional). A new chapter will start soon.
Let me go out on a limb and assume if the title of this post got you here you know what Customer Development is. So, I’m proposing that with your Customer Development you also do an Anti-Customer Development. My definition of Anti-Customer Development is to interview people that would *not* buy your product, but they might look like they would. Continue reading it.
If you are doing a startup, just starting as a side-project or profitable and on its way to unicorndom, as a founder you are bound to encounter many advisors on your journey. These interactions come in unstructured and structured ways: the coffee with a friend of a friend who’s an exec at a Fortune 500 to an entrepreneur who is a formal advisor on your board. They come with different names as advisors, partners, mentors or just friend. Continue reading.
The amazing rise and prominence of Y Combinator, TechStars and 500 Startups has bestowed upon us the idea that startups have a very specific timeframe to figure out their product, raise money, launch, build a brand, etc. You combine that with many entrepreneurs talking about having an MVP in a couple of weeks, and abandoning their idea after four weeks and you start to believe that if you can’t prove something in a couple of months it’s not a good path to continue. Continue reading.
Four years ago Gamification was all the rage. Books were being published, conferences were being held, VCs and angels would ask you if you shouldn’t add badges, leaderboard and points to your product. It was like the tech world (excluding games) had discovered the holy grail of how to engage and retain users. And then, the fad died. Continue reading it.
We live in a very peculiar time in history in which the demand for tech skills are so high that companies are going above and beyond to convince talent to join their mission. These are primarily software engineers, but also designers, product managers, managers, etc. As a tech person, I can tell you that without metaphors and analogies we wouldn’t be able to communicate. So I’m borrowing a well-known software paradigm to explain another, the project management triangle of scope, cost & schedule to explain how tech companies can excel recruiting talent. Continue reading it on Medium.
I’m not the kind of person that buys technology to see if it works and fits their lifestyle. I have to picture how I’ll use that tech and do an ROI in my mind if it’s worth it or not. Even though I consider myself an earlier adopter, I’m also one who doesn’t like to waste money. The Apple Watch was a big gamble for me. I wanted partially for the tech, partially for the fashion statement. I bent my rules of having clear tech-ROI and I don’t regret, it was worth it.
A watch I can wear
It has been a while since I wore a real watch. I used the Basis B1 for a while when it came out. The Basis wasn’t a good watch. The Apple Watch is an excellent watch. It fits well in your arm; it’s easy to see the time, etc. It’s also very beautifully built, with rounded corners and the right balance of glass, metal and rubber (I have the black sports edition).
I was worried the bloggers and reporters were whining about how distracting the notifications were, and they had to customize the crap out of it. Bullshit. These reporters/bloggers are absolutely outside of the norm and probably get notifications every minute from the many apps they use. The default notifications are enough. Not only that, but since I get my phone’s notification on my watch (for all apps on my phone), I don’t have to reach to my phone as often. This has increased my productivity since the notification is not actionable on the watch, but at least I see it, and that satisfy my dopamine needs.
Who would have thought that this is the killer feature for me? Well, it is. Although the Timer app is not very sophisticated, I use it a lot. Primarily when I’m cooking, but also when I give N-minute warnings to my kids to stop playing video games or to get ready to leave. If the Timer app supported multiple timers, it would be even better.
The “experts” were so paranoid about Battery life saying it would be a weak point, and you’d have to charge it during the day. Another piece of expert BS. I use it a lot throughout the day. I go running for an hour or more with it, I check my heart rate several times during the day and at the end of the day (after 12-16 hours of usage) the battery is never below 50%. More often than not, at the end of the day the battery is in the 60-65% range.
I would not buy the watch just because of these features, but they add up to the value prop:
- Remote control for the iPhone camera.
- Weather app & current temperature on the watch face.
- Heart Rate: I had very low expectations of this since I wore the Basis for so long, and the HR of the Basis wasn’t very accurate, particularly during physical activity. The Apple Watch HR is much, much better. I still haven’t abandoned my Wahoo HR strap, though.• Steps.
- Apple Pay. It’s neat. Neater than using Apple Pay on the phone. Plus people’s reaction is also priceless.
- Water resistant.
Fitness App & functionality
What a piece of crap. Both, what happens in the watch and the companion mobile app. I probably have a higher bar for this since I’ve been in this industry for 4+ years, but the built-in fitness functionality is nearly useless (except for counting steps). I could give a two-page long list of problems with this. The bottom line is that it doesn’t compute even close your level of physical activity, and that’s a deal breaker.
Here are a few fun things: Even though I work at a standing desk the watch is constantly notifying me to stand. Any activity but running is not properly accounted in calories or the “minutes of activities” – I did paddle board for one hour, and the watch didn’t register at all. The way it measures calories is very wonky (that’s the technical term) – instead of going for all day calories burn they went to calories burn during exercise only, but since it doesn’t detect exercise well it also gets this wrong. The visualization of the data (in the watch, in the Activities app or in the Health app) is barely usable. On, and on, and on.
Please, someone, tell me an amazing and useful app that I can install, and it will make the watch experience better. I can’t find one! The apps are mostly useless. Twitter – useless. RunKeeper – useless. American Airlines – useless. Apple should have done what it did with the iPhone. Launch with only the built-in apps and that’s it. It takes time for app developers to understand fully the value of a new form factor and how to best build native experiences.
Wi-fi / LTE / 3G
The lack of any connection to the real-world without the phone is a problem. It would be the first problem I would fix if I were Apple. I have my phone with me nearly all the time, except when I’m at home and my phone is charging on my kitchen counter. If I’m more than 15 feet or so away from my phone, the watch loses connectivity. I also would like to be able to – once in a while – leave the home without the phone, using just the watch (and clothes, optionally), and be able to make calls, text and have GPS. These are particularly appealing scenarios if I’m going to the beach, running, biking, paddle-boarding, etc.
- Another power adapter. Another thing for me to forget when I travel.
- It will be stolen, broken, lost or become obsolete in the next 18 months. It means I’m paying $1 per day to use this thing. I’ve made peace with that feeling.
- Lack of GPS.
- The speaker is bad. Calls over the watch are of very low quality.
For me, the Apple Watch was worth the price and knowing what I know now I’d buy it again. That said, I’m having a hard time recommending it to people. Unless you are an early-adopter and you have $400 to dispose of, just skip it and wait for V2 or V3.
I’m excited about the Apple Watch. I’m a lot more excited what the wearable tech will be like in 5 to 10 years, but now let’s focus on the first month of Apple Watch.
Today, hundreds of thousands of people will receive their newly minted Apple Watch, and they will play with it to their hearts content, and then they will install some apps. But for the vast majority of app developers this first month will be a disappointment.
Let’s put aside the fact the watch is a new form factor. It requires new types of interactions. We’ll learn what’s interesting, what’s annoying and what’s critical to have on your wrist — Yes, there are plenty of other smart watches out there, but nothing has caught up yet.
Like most apps in any store, user adoption follows a power law curve. A few apps are in the “head” of the curve and get wide adoption while the rest have fewer and fewer users, also known as the long-tail.
Let’s assume the average user will install ten apps on the watch in the first month of usage. There are currently 2,300 approved apps. I’m guessing half of users will get their watch in April (based on the 1,000,000 sales estimate and rumors of a backlog extending to June) there will be 5,000,000 app installs during that period. Let’s also assume that out of that number, half will be flagship apps: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter, etc.
That leaves 2,500,000 million installs to be battled by 2,300 apps. If this were a perfect distribution, the average app would get just about 1,000 installs in month 1. But that’s not how it works, a few of the 2,300 apps will get most of the share. If we look at a simple power-law distribution, 1% of the apps will get 99% of the installs. That means 23 out of the 2,300 apps will have 100K installs or more while the remaining 2,270 will get about 11 installs.
Here is the equations for the app installs for the first month (assuming 500K activated units):
- 0.2-Percenters Flagship apps (5): 90-99% adoption = 450K-500K installs
- 1-Percenters: 500K Watches x ((10 – 5) x 99%) Installs / (2,300 Apps x 1%) = 108K installs / app
- 99-Percenters: 500K Watches x ((10 -5) x 1%) Installs / (2,300 Apps x 99%) = 11 installs / app (eleven!)
11 installs per app in the first month
Yeah, that’s crazy isn’t it. Well, what if we turn the expectation knob full on “optimistic”? Let’s say Apple will ship 1M watches in the first month and the average user will install 25 apps in the watch, not 10. That means most of the apps will get about a mindblowing 50 installs in the first month.
It will get worse before it gets better
Apple won’t sell as many watches in Q2/Q3 as they did with the pre-order. Most people were obsessed with the idea of having an Apple Watch already pre-ordered one. The next boost in Apple Watch adoption will be in the holiday season. If Apple can break 5M sold units in 2015, it’s 5X what this app installs looks like in this first month. The number of Apps available by the end of the year, it’s likely to be in the tens of thousands. That changes the equation to something still unpalatable for the average app developer:
Here is what 2015 will look like, being optimistic about average number of installs (25 per Watch*), and 10K apps available in the App Store and 5M units activated:
- 0.2-Percenters (20) Flagship Apps: 90-99% adoption = 4-5M installs
- 1-Percenters: 5M Watches x ((25 – 20) x 99%) Installs / (10K Apps X 1%) = 250K installs / app
- 99-Percenters: 5M Watches x ((25 – 20) x 1%) Installs / (10K Apps X 99%) = 25 installs / app (Twenty five!)
Maybe I’m a couple of orders of magnitude off on my math. Maybe the power-law is not as steep as I describe it here. Instead of top 1% of the apps getting 99% of the installs, maybe they get 80% of the installs, in which cases your average app would get 500 installs in 2015. Did you read that? Five-hundred installs for the whole year.
The Silver Lining
There are two big winners by my calculations. The first is that we’ll see about 20 apps that are not the flagship ones take off. It will be very interesting to see the categories they belong to (Payment? News? Messaging? Fitness? Game?) and the type of value they are adding. And, from a product perspective, the type of interaction and UI they implemented.
The second winner will be Facebook. No, I’m not talking about their Watch App, those won’t make a dent in their service usage or revenue. I’m talking about the 9,900 apps that cost tens of thousands to millions of dollars to implement, and they will spend enormous amounts of money to acquire users. Some of these apps will invest tens of thousands of dollars or more in customer acquisition. That could account for an extra $50-100M in ad revenue in 2015 alone.
There was a pattern in the early days of Mobile Apps: Spend above and beyond to acquire users to get the top ranking in your category. It was easier to maintain that position while the user base of the platform grew exponentially. Many Apps will take a similar approach expecting the watch to have hundreds of millions of users in the next five years. Spending $25-100K in the first few months to guarantee your future position is a “cheap” price to pay. This strategy will work for a handful of apps, it will fail for most.
* This Nielsen report indicate the average iPhone user has 27 apps installed so that number is not far off.